I found the Stratechery and Nadella's takes to be interesting. Also the fact that news orgs say things like: "The situation is particularly remarkable since, as a Chinese company, DeepSeek lacks access to Nvidia’s state-of-the-art chips used to train AI models powering chatbots like ChatGPT." Whereas they don't mention the fact that Deepseek still used Nvidia chips. news orgs are implying they didn't. Stratechery points out that the reduced memory/communications bandwidth of the gimped H800 chips they have access to drove the MOE/MLA architecture developments to make their model possible on the less powerful chips. Nadella (on X) points out that by Jevons paradox [1], AI usage (and NVidia chip usage) will increase because deepseeks has reduced costs. One other point Statechery made is that DeepSeek likely distilled the output of leading models for V3 and R1. They have shown that they can replicate the leaders cheaply and quickly, but they can't produce a leading model without copying (yet). [1] x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255…

This is why Satya was posting about Jevan's Paradox at 10pm last night. (x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255…) Decreasing resource cost of intelligence should increase consumption of intelligence. That would be the bull case for Nvidia. If you believe there's a hard limit on how much intelligence society wishes to consume, that's a bear case.

Satya Nadella posted about it on Twitter. x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255…