We should take the man at his word: twitter.com/patio11/status/124155331102… > I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems.

Hah, good catch. Kind of can't believe he's still doing that after the last time [0] 0: The tweet: twitter.com/patio11/status/124155132774… The, ah, assertion: twitter.com/patio11/status/124155331102… > I am materially wrong about the most consequential thing I've had to have a view on in 15 years. You should probably degrade your estimate of my ability to think through complex problems. The prediction: twitter.com/patio11/status/125258428948… which is a link to kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavi… , which states, on April 4 2020: > Japan will face a national health crisis within a month. Of course, he then edited it with a framing in which he claims: > The core result was correct. > ... > This prediction was correct. So not only was he wrong, he refuses to acknowledge or understand how and why he was wrong. And continues to tweet hashes as though we should give anything he says any merit whatsoever.

He's tweeted another clue: twitter.com/patio11/status/124155331102…

Sorry I don't know how to quote so maybe my comment was confusing between what I wrote and what Patrick wrote. Here's his Tweet claiming that and explicitly staking his reputation on this: twitter.com/patio11/status/124155331102…